Q4 2023 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

 

18 Oct 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Curtis Island LNG Exports are at near record levels. Edition 188 looks at where the gas is coming from, the changes in facility deliverability and the net interaction with the domestic market.
  • September 2023 saw a number of record high renewables and record low carbon emissions.  What are the pricing implications?
  • Q1-2024, BOM has predicted some hot summer weather.  This edition discusses the value allocation between underlying market prices (under cap) and volatility (above caps).

 

01 Nov 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Origin and Venice enter discussions on the LNG import facility in Adelaide.  This edition looks at the implications and complexities.
  • Bushfires have been burning near the gas and infrastructure in the Surat Basin; let’s investigate.
  • Given the recent renewable records, Edition 189 looks at the coal duration curves across this year (Nov22-23), last year (Nov21-22) and three years ago (Nov19-20).

 

22 Nov 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Edition 190 follows unplanned outages and gas flows across Queensland with an analysis of the responses from LNG exports, production facilities, storage, pipeline exports and gas supply market trades.
  • Brent Oil Linkages: We look at the recent movements in the Brent market conditions, allowing for FX movements and comparisons against the domestic market as well as the JKM Netback outcomes.

 

27 Nov 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • This edition of The Edge #191 covers an emerging event – APLNG’s vessel stuck at Curtis Island.  This event highlights some of the single points of failure that continue to persist, not just for APLNG as a single facility, but for Curtis Island as an aggregate.

 

05 Dec 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • At the time of publication, the power outage at Cesi Qingdao has interrupted the ability for APLNG to export gas for more than 9 days.  Following on from edition #191, this report looks at the impact on revenue, CSG production and other vessel movements.
  • Coal and Gas Flexibility:  With October seeing Renewables (Wind, Solar) exceed Black Coal as the dominant fuel source in the NEM, edition #192 assesses the behaviour of coal and gas to meet the negative fuel cost competitors.

 

22 Dec 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The final edition of 2023 is focuses on weather, including…
    –  The latest Bureau update on the January to March 2024 outlook.
    – Analysis of the relationship between gas and electricity demand given local weather conditions.
    – The global and southern hemisphere trends and the many records broken during 2023.

 

Request a sample of The Edge Energy Market Report via our Contact Us form.

Q3 2023 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

 

11 July 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The Mandatory Code of Conduct was released on July 10th, and live as of July 11th, 2023. This edition investigates the differences between the earlier Exposure Draft and Fact Sheet.
  • Victorian winter weather conditions have been characterised as mild and windy.  What is the impact on gas demand, gas generation, wind generators, Queensland pipeline flows, Longford gas supply and finally, Iona gas storage?  How this could affect the next twelve months?

 

7 August 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • In depth assessment of the energy transition, focused on the interaction between the decline in electricity market carbon emissions and the impact of a growing renewable sector.

 

18 August 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • LNG contractual arrangements for the Curtis Island LNG facilities –  Assessment of the public information on long term contracts and public notifications of the spot cargoes.
  • As the end of winter 2023 approaches, this edition examines the fallout from the warmer winter and lower demand – what was just winter 2023 and what may be permanent change?

 

15 September 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The Mandatory Code of Conduct cooling off period finished on the 11 September with the requirement to disclose Likely Available Gas.  Edition 185 explores this requirement and other components of section 34.
  • Speculation has commenced regarding the planned exit of Origin’s Eraring Power station in August 2025.  This edition looks at the recent news and market data.
  • Currently travelling in the Pacific Ocean, what are the potential 2023 implications of the FRSU contracted for Port Kembla (Hoegh Galleon)?

 

28 September 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The Victorian Winter was the fourth warmest on record with many key sites at or above historical highs. Warmer weather means lower demand.  What’s the impact on the gas prices, Longford’s behaviour and Iona’s storage?
  • Renewable Milestones: Spring time brings bright suns and moderate weather which means we are seeing record renewable market share. But there is more to the story including a major milestone.

 

Request a sample of The Edge Energy Market Report via our Contact Us form.

Josh Stabler, Managing Director of Energy Edge, will be presenting at the APPEA Conference and Exhibition, beginning in Adelaide on Monday, May 15th.

Josh will be on stage for two events.

He will first join Panel Series Session 5 – ‘Running with the Bulls – Investing in the Face of Regulatory Instability and Intervention’ at 2:00-3:15pm on Tuesday 16th. The panel series has a great list of contributors and will be hosted by Ali Moore.

Josh will also appear at Energy Markets Session 25 – ‘Resilience & Ethics in Energy Markets’ at 3:45-5:00pm on Wednesday 17th before dinner. This session will look at the fundamental drivers behind the volatile events of Winter 2022 and a look forward at the market conditions ahead of Winter 2023.

Learn more about the APPEA Conference.

Contact Us for more information.

Q2 2023 The Edge – Energy Market Reports topics

Energy Edge has recently published The Edge – Energy Market reports.

17 April 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Liddell’s Exit: As we enter the final weeks of AGL Liddell’s 50-year operation, we investigate the behaviour in terms of dispatch given the NSW grid demand. Further, we compare that against Origin’s Eraring.
  • Carbon Emissions: Update on the NEM Carbon emissions and comparison against the AEMO ISP2022 middle case scenarios.

 

4 April 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • ADGSM Not Triggered: Minister King has received updates from ACCC, AEMO and others and has decided not to trigger the ADGSM for Q3-2023.
  • Reviewing GLNG Annual Delivery Plan: We review the GLNG ADP and its implications for the GLNG exports for the year ahead.
  • Iona exceeds capacity: Iona has reached 24,682TJ, over the 24,000TJ capacity. This is much earlier and higher than last year’s peak and compare to GSOO 2023.
  • Longford MT Capacity Outlook Update: Longford has recently updated their Medium-Term Capacity Outlook, and we compare to previous reports and historical conditions.
  • Reviewing GSOO 2023: Review of the latest GSOO in terms of SGM production, peak capacity and capacity factors, SWQP and drilling program.

 

3 May 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • This edition of the Edge is dedicated to The Competition and Consumer (Gas Market Code) Regulations 2023 aka the Mandatory Code of Conduct aka Instrument.  The Edge report summarises and provides commentary on each of the four pillars of the Instrument.
    • Negotiation process for Expression of Interests, Gas Initial Offers, Gas Final Offers
    • Reasonable Pricing provisions of negotiations and agreements
    • Good Faith provisions of the Code of Conduct
    • Record Keeping obligations.

 

15 May 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • The New Longford?:  Analysis of Longford’s updated Medium Term Capacity Outlook expectations, and its subsequent material decline.
  • The complication of Storage: Iona Gas Storage has shifted into gas supplies after the recent peak storage levels; we compare before and after the “turn”.
  • Pre and Post Liddell Exit – Gas Generation Review:  Look at the change in behaviour across three analysis periods; two weeks before, two week after and May 2022, including investigations into the role of coal, gas, hydro, solar and wind dispatch.

 

1 June 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Updated Lazard Levelized Cost of Energy Report 2023.
  • Pre Winter 2023 Update, including…
    • Pricing: Gas and electricity prices and equivalent heat rate.
    • Flows: Investigate SWQP, Northern Gas Pipeline and MSP flows and constraints/limits.
    • Production/Storage: Otway, Moomba, Longford and Iona updates.
    • Demand: Comparison on demand in YoY and relationship with weather conditions.
    • Conclusion: Summary of Concerning and Moderating condition.

 

19 June 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

  • Potential Longford Industrial Action: Esso fronts the Fair Work Commission with potential supply implications.
  • Code of Conduct Fact Sheet released: New details and updates. Positives and negatives.
  • Queensland Gas Production hits new record: May 2023 saw a new record gas production in Queensland.

 

Request a sample of The Edge Energy Market Report via our Contact Us form.

Joshua Stabler, Managing Director of Energy Edge, was invited to join Ross Greenwood on Sky News Business Now on 17 April, 2023.

Ross and Josh discussed the impending closure of Liddell Power Station and the market expectations ahead of winter 2023.

WATCH HERE

Contact Us for more information.

Energy Edge appointment as RRO Auditor.

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has approved Energy Edge’s Nick Denman and Dr Elliot Tonkes as Independent Auditors for the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO). Please contact Nick (ndenman@energyedge.com.au) or Elliot (etonkes@energyedge.com.au) for further information.

The Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) requires that – if the obligation is triggered – liable entities (relevant market customers and opt-in customers) report their net contract position to the AER, with contracts adjusted based on their relative ‘firmness’. Standard qualifying contracts are to be adjusted using a default firmness methodology, and non-standard qualifying contracts are to be adjusted using a bespoke firmness methodology developed by the liable entity.

Liable entities are required to have their bespoke firmness methodology, and the way they have been applied, approved by an independent auditor on the AER’s auditors’ panel.

Please contact either Nick (ndenman@energyedge.com.au) or Elliot (etonkes@energyedge.com.au) for further information.

https://www.aer.gov.au/retail-markets/retailer-reliability-obligation/auditor-panel

Energy Edge conducted a review of insurance products against 18 possible events for an oil and gas company.

Energy Edge was engaged to review insurance products for an oil and gas company to assess if the organisation was adequately covered across multiple scenarios.

The analysis included the investigation of existing insurance and commercial arrangements specifically related to the client. Key considerations included: basis of indemnity settlement, gross profit and turnover, expenses, indemnity period, waiting periods, coverage, exclusions, premium considerations, and force majeure clauses in gas supply agreements.

Energy Edge’s commercial expertise in the oil and gas industry was then applied by running 18 different possible insurance events to assess if the products were adequate.

The thorough analysis and findings were provided to the client across several workshops and is being used to reshape and optimise their insurance.

Energy Edge led a detailed analysis of the impacts and business opportunities of proposed LNG import terminals.

Energy Edge was engaged to analyse the impact that proposed LNG import terminals would have on the Australian east coast gas markets and the client’s business.

The process for providing recommendations included drawing from several specialised resources and market analysis tools, leveraging the team’s expertise of the domestic gas and electricity market operations and knowledge of participants’ behaviour, positioning and strategic drivers.

The team assessed the opportunities and threats the proposed import  terminals presented to international LNG participants (suppliers, portfolio players) and domestic participants (buyers, storage providers, traders, transporters).

The details analysis was presented via an interactive online workshop. The process also resulted in an expansion of the client’s understanding of why import terminals are attractive to multiple market participants and thus provided them with new and potential business opportunities.

Energy Edge assisted a GOC to establish trading capabilities and investment practices in the renewable sector.

Energy Edge was engaged as a subject matter expert to assist a Government Owned Corporation (GOC) take control of renewable energy assets and establish short term trading capabilities (gas, electricity, retail) and long term investment practices in the renewables sector (build-own-operate, Power Purchase Agreements, etc).

In addition to completing many market applications, licenses, authorisations, contracts and agreements, Energy Edge helped the GOC implement policies and processes that would ensure short-term and long-term investment decisions were part of a well-defined due diligence process where market risk, counterparty exposure and portfolio hedging strategies were well considered.

Energy Edge was very proud to get the client to financial and physical trading within agreed timeframes and to work collaboratively with the client’s staff as well as other consultants, contractors and secondees from across the industry.

Energy Edge delivered several well researched market entry strategies for a multinational wanting minimal outlay and high-return.

Energy Edge was engaged by a large multi-national organisation looking at potential investment and trading opportunities in the Australian energy markets.

The challenge was to provide an overview of all market aspects including operations and regulatory requirements, in a very succinct report.

The result was an information report which included several market entry strategies. These ranged from entering the market with minimal outlay and operating the business from overseas, to investment and trading in markets with physical operations based in Australia.

What Our Clients Have To Say

I have engaged Energy Edge for a number of projects ranging from Subject Matter Expert Project Managers through to the design, development and implementation of electricity and gas trading support and risk management software and assisting in the establishment of the energy trading function. I have found the team possess the industry experience, tailored insights and commitment to task completion that resulted in their professional delivery of these projects. I would definitely consider using Energy Edge in future energy trading related projects.

Tanya Mills
General Manager Customer & Energy Markets
CleanCo Queensland

Energy Edge has supported one of our successful energy infrastructure acquisitions by providing significant subject matter expertise into the energy market conditions, and detailed analysis of the behaviour of critical participants. Energy Edge worked seamlessly with our lead investment bank and contributed the key industry knowledge to make sure the acquisition considered all potential value propositions. We have continued to maintain an ongoing strategic relationship and would recommend them to any local or international parties.

James Ward
Investment Director
Palisade Investment Partners

Energy Edge has completed a number of projects for Stanwell including the design, development, implementation and support of At-Risk and Hedge Accounting systems, and have worked within Stanwell as embedded resources while also leading our STTM Readiness Project, our Carbon Readiness Project and our Retail Project. The ease of working with Energy Edge is due to their accumulated knowledge obtained whilst working within energy trading companies themselves. They know the energy markets.

Carl Malouf
General Manager, Quantitative Risk and Analytics
Stanwell Corporation

Energy Edge has provided analytical and risk expertise and system support for InterGen Australia for a number of years. Energy Edge’s ability to work closely with members of the Risk, Trading, IT and broader Finance team in a flexible, long-term collaboration has enabled us to achieve improvements in our processes and a complete re-design and build of the risk systems to support our trading operation. Their skills and knowledge enable them to work closely with our business and I would highly recommend Energy Edge to any party.

Sam Watson-Will
Head of Market Risk
InterGen (Australia) Pty Ltd

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