• Millmerran Bushfires: Bushfires are returning as a threat and after three years of La Nina conditions, the fuel is plentiful. The first potential threat is the bushfire near Millmerran with the transmission line near the path of the fires.
• QCLNG Outage: QCLNG outage has been extended to 21 January 2023 and upstream supply has been constrained.
• East coast GPG: Across the east coast, we investigate gas generator behaviour (2022 showing peaks and troughs), Iona gas storage injection and storage levels (historically high) and upcoming Longford outages.

• ACCC Guidelines: we look at the Penalty, the Order and the ACCC Guidelines Examples in detail and how each interact with a summary of the four key messages.
• Walloons Expression of Interest: understanding the key terms, complication and where value has allocated and released.
• Finally, we take a look at how the interpretation of the Guidelines and the EOI might shape the ongoing consultation around the Reasonable Pricing Provisions.

• ACCC Gas Inquiry Report: The January 2023 report has incorporated a Forecast for Cal-2022 for LNG Net Taker / Net Supplier which appears to misalign with actual market outcomes.
• The Role of LNG Exports Gas Supply: Following the assessment of the LNG Export Net Supplier calculations, we look at the role of the Southern winter bias and its equivalency to Iona Gas Storage Facility.
• Unusual Queensland Forecast Demand: Friday 3 February had very high expectation for Queensland demand outcomes, but it appears to have included an unusual shape. Potentially a hazard of forecasting grid demand, rather than underlying demand.

• Bushfires: The recent bushfires in the Surat region affected the pipeline routes for APLNG and QCLNG and impacted the gas production and LNG exports for a few days. With excess ground fuel from years of rain, bushfires in Australia remain a dangerous threat to life and potentially infrastructure.
• Proposed ADGSM Consultation: Another heavy review of the policy including timelines, Allowable Volumes calculations and the potential implications associated with currently undefined words.  We delve into the Protected Long Term Contracts and the implications on sovereign risk and rising moral hazard.  Government policy has the difficult task of threading the path of managing short term conditions without increasing the long term threats.

6 March 2023 Edge Report (Subscriber Link)

• Callide C Outage Revision – Analysis of the Callide C outage delay and its implication on the Callide C’s total offline rate since 2001.  Further investigation into the movements of availability for each MTPASA version and the trends that can be extracted.
• Time to change Peak?  The traditional Peak time period (5-day 7am to 10pm) can no longer be considered a relevant financial derivative as the product has moved further away from fundamental wholesale market exposures. Investigation into an alternative time period that provides increased relevance for the current and future markets.

CATEGORY: Consultancy and Advisory

TAGS: Electricity Forward, Electricity Spot, Gas, LNG, Renewables, The Edge

MARCH 2023